2010's Dark Horses: Portugal's Dimmimg Generation

It isn’t easy being a Portugal fan. Since 2000, the team has oscillated between being brilliant, and utterly incompetent. As a result, Portuguese fans never know what to expect from the team formerly dubbed the “Golden Generation.” During the European cup in 2000, Portugal played free-flowing entertaining football and barely lost to France in the semifinals. Two years later, expectations were high, with Portugal entering the world cup with virtually the same team, and benefiting from what seemed to be a relatively easy group. The expectations, however, were soon dashed when Portugal didn’t make it past the group stage, with an unlikely defeat to the US in the first game, and a self-destructive performance against South Korea, stained by Joao Pinto’s inexcusable red card. The following European cup saw Portugal – playing at home - live up to its billing once again as a football force, reaching the final, but being defeated by Greece. The 2006 world cup in Germany was another successful show with the team finishing fourth, while the last Euro turned into a disappointment when Figo, Ronaldo and co. fell to Germany in the quarterfinals.

This is year Portugal is generally being regarded as a non-threat. Most pundits agree that group G will be dominated by Brazil, and that the Ivory Coast, which many regard as Africa’s most realistic hope of surpassing the quarterfinals, will follow in second. Who can blame them? Portugal went into its qualifying group as a heavy favorite, and was predicted to finish at the top, with Sweden and Denmark fighting to make the playoffs. That didn’t happen. Instead the Portuguese only confirmed their presence in the playoffs on the last day of qualification after Sweden failed to beat Denmark, the eventual group winners. The irony of this whole situation is that Portugal must be the only country in the history of FIFA’s world ranking top three to not be expected to progress past the group stages.

Yet, there are enough reasons for Portugal fans to be optimistic about their team, and it would be silly to dismiss the perennial underachievers. After all, Portugal did manage to qualify when all the odds were against them, and they did so without their captain and talisman, Cristiano Ronaldo. Additionally, the team is tournament tested and includes players who represent some of Europe’s best clubs. Thus, don’t be surprised to see the Portuguese fighting their way past the group stage and then facing Spain in the ultimate showdown for Iberian supremacy. And here’s why:

Reason 1: The pressure is off – Expectations for the Portuguese national team have been high for the better part of the last twenty years. After Portugal defeated Brazil in the final of the under 20 world cup in 1991(under the tutelage of Carlos Quieroz), everyone expected the team’s success to translate to the senior squad. Boasting the likes of Luis Figo, Rui Costa, Fernando Couto, and Paulo Sousa – all of whom went on to enjoy trophy-laden careers on some of Europe’s biggest teams – the belief was that the “Golden Generation” would lift at least one major trophy. Of course that didn’t happen, and now the consensus is that if they couldn’t do it, then the current team cant either. That notion may prove to be a blessing in disguise. The Portuguese players certainly think so. Without the pressure of expectation, Portugal will be more likely to play as if they’ve got nothing to lose. Furthermore, as underdogs, the Portuguese will be cognizant that the pressure will be on Brazil and the Ivory Coast to perform. And while the South Americans are used to dealing with pressure, the Africans are not.

Reason 2: Possession – While Portugal can be outplayed in many aspects of the game, there is one area where the Portuguese rival the best teams in the world, and that is ball possession. Of course any respectable fan will contend that possession means nothing in a game where the only determiner is putting the ball in the back of the net. Still, while this is obviously true, ball possession is extremely important when it comes to controlling tempo. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that with less possession, come fewer scoring chances. That doesn’t mean that the few chances aren’t good ones, but Portugal will be looking to hold on to the ball as much as possible in order to prevent its opponents from establishing a rhythm, and when you’re playing teams like Brazil, who come at you in waves, that may prove half the battle.

Reason 3: Cristiano Ronaldo – One of the more recent theories concerning the Portuguese maintains that the team is better sans Ronaldo. The reasoning behind the theory is that when the winger is on the field, his teammates will look to get him the ball as much as possible at the expense of better options. Additionally, the question remains of where to play Ronaldo on the field, as he can play equally well as a winger (his original position), or as a forward (the position he now plays at Real Madrid). Queiroz was reluctant to play Ronaldo as a forward during qualifying, but Portugal’s recent tune-up friendlies against Cape Verde and Cameroon suggest that the manager is willing to give his star player more tactical freedom behind the striker, which seems to be Sporting Lisbon’s Liedson. Nevertheless, whatever position Ronaldo will be employed in, chances are he won’t disappoint in South Africa. At 25, Ronaldo is aware that this could be his last chance to perform in the world’s biggest stage, as there are concerns about Portugal’s next generation football, and whether it will be able to sustain the team’s recent success. Furthermore, Ronaldo is obsessed with the idea of being ranked among the greatest players ever, and he understands that that will only be accomplished if he delivers stellar performances in the African continent.

Potential Handicap: Goal scoring – It is no secret that Portugal’s biggest weakness has been its inability to score goals. Long gone are the days of Eusebio, and while Pauleta replaced the “Black Panther” as the team’s all-time best scorer, he was often criticized for not scoring in the big games. Ronaldo will be Portugal’s major scoring threat during the tournament, but the captain has never been able to translate his club scoring form into the national team, and Liedson hasn’t had enough time to prove that he can do for his adopted nation, what he’s done for the Lisbon Lions in the Portuguese league. Much hope will be placed on Portugal’s midfield, which has recently carried the team’s goal-scoring burdens. One thing is certain: if Portugal fail to find the back of the net regularly enough, they can forget about getting out of their group, as something tells me that the games against the Ivory Coast and Brazil will end up being shootouts.

What To Watch Out For: Everyone thinks that Portugal’s game against the Ivory Coast will be the most important for the Iberians; however, I see their game against North Korea as the real decider. Everyone is writing off the Asians as nothing more than sacrificial lambs that should be happy to even be at the party, but don’t be surprised if they trip one of the big three in the group, and Portugal has a history of underestimating weaker opponents.