Contenders or Pretenders: Brazil (no) Joga Bonito

The most interesting assessment of Brazil’s chances in the world cup was uttered by ESPN’s Tommy Smyth, who claimed that Brazil would fail to advance out of the group stage, but then quickly added the disclaimer: “but if Brazil do manage to go through, they may win it.” Mr. Smyth’s analysis is either embarrassingly inconsistent, or is just a symptom of Brazil’s unpredictable play.

There are more questions about this year’s squad than there have been about Canarinha teams in the past. This has actually been the norm since Dunga took over in July of 2006, only a few weeks after France ousted the team in that year’s world cup quarterfinals. Dunga has been a constant victim of scathing attacks from the media, as well as the general public for his strict adherence to strategy, his player selection, and the team’s deviation from the type of soccer that makes Brazil…well, Brazil. For the most part, the coach has stuck to his philosophy, and he definitely has not shied away from making tough decisions about players – just ask Ronaldinho. And for all the flak the former world cup winner has received, he already has one Copa America, and one Confederations Cup under his belt.

In the end, no matter how Brazil performs in South Africa, Dunga will continue to have his detractors; the big question is whether or not he’ll have a second trophy in his cabinet to help muffle their whingeing.

Why They’re Contenders

Two defensive midfielders

The Brazilians have always been known for their offense, but it may be their defense that sticks out during this tournament. Dunga has made sure that his midfield is well balanced and relies heavily on a defensive midfield duo that allows attacking midfielders more tactical freedom to create offense. The likely starters will be Filipe Melo and Gilberto Silva, both of whom are strong tacklers and have inexhaustible lungs. Gilberto is one of the more experienced players on the team, which is very important considering Melo’s occasional rashness. If Brazil is to be beaten, opponents need to move the ball fast enough through the midfield, and have to attack in numbers. Both defensive midfielders only look shaky when they’re outnumbered and outpaced, as neither of them is particularly fast. Chances are most of Brazil’s goals will be a result of attacks that originate at Melo’s and Gilberto’s feet after they’ve wrecked someone else’s offensive play.

Attacking wing defenders

All of today’s successful teams, whether club or national, have wing defenders who can support an attack and cause defensive imbalances to opponents. It’s safe to say that whatever team wins the world cup will have had consistent offensive contribution from its wing defenders. In this regard Brazil is probably ahead of every other team in the tournament. In Maicon, the seleção has arguably the best right-sided defender in the world. Where many wing defenders are categorized as being either good defenders, or good attackers, Maicon is both. With his speed, he can mark any winger, his size allows him to pitch in the middle to help the centre-backs, and his fitness and offensive disposition enable him to torment defenses. On the left side, Michel Bastos supports the attack effectively with his speed and powerful shooting. The Lyon player’s defense may not be the best, but with Brazil constantly looking to score, there may be very little for Bastos to do at the back.

Why They’re Pretenders

Kaka’s fitness

This season was not Kaka’s best. The change of league, and his groin problem prevented Brazil’s number ten from performing consistently, and as a result his confidence and playing time took a knock. In order for Brazil to perform at its best level, Kaka must be pulling the strings, and controlling the pace of the game. Two-thirds of the game flows through his feet, and if he’s not at his best, there is no one on the bench who can replace him, whether in quality, or style of play.

Bickering

All of Nike’s Brazilian soccer commercials would have you believe that the Brazilian camp is a harmonious one. Apparently that is not the case. Quite a few players have voiced their displeasure with Dunga’s emphasis on tactical discipline, while others have had some disagreements during practice. Since arriving in South Africa, Kaka has had it out with Filipe Melo for his aggressive tackles, and Julio Sampaio and Dani Alves have also had their quarrels. Some are attributing the arising conflicts to nervousness within the camp, which may derive from the pressure the team is feeling from the fans back across the Atlantic.

The Verdict: Contenders

All things considered, Tommy Smyth may be correct in his assessment of Brazil’s chances. The team will be tested by Portugal and the Ivory Coast, and could potentially lose to either one of them. However, if the Brazilians get through the group, they will have surpassed two very good opponents, and will likely not face many teams that are better on their way to the final. Kaka claims he is feeling close to his best, so he should be ready to guide the team. As for the discord within the squad: We’ve all seen what player conflicts have done to the Dutch teams in the past. If Dunga doesn’t cool hot tempers, Brazil could face the same problems on the field that have prevented the Oranje from doing better than they have. Still, the team should cruise through the group stage and then make its way to the final before lifting a record sixth world cup.